This may look like sci-fi paranoia. It is not. There is a possibilty of serious disruptions this week that may impair very important communication infrastructures nationwide -- inlcuding the Katrina recovery and rescue efforts. Please recommend.
Today's huge flare erupted at 17:41 UTC (1:41 PM EST) and bombarded the sunlit side of Earth with X-rays that disrupted communications for a number of hours this afternoon.
The flare originated from a complex of sunspots that just today has rotated into view from the backside of the sun. This complex is expected to maintain its ability to produce major flares and will rotate into a more Earthward directed position over the next 7 days before rotating again to the backide of the sun in 14 days.
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY BULLETIN #05- 82005 September 07 at 01:31 p.m. MDT
POWERFUL SOLAR FLARE ERUPTS
One of the largest solar flares on record occurred today, September 07. Very active Region 808 produced a powerful X17 flare (R4 on the NOAA Scale) observed on the NOAA GOES satellite at 07/1740 UTC...
This flare, the 4th largest in the last 15 years, erupted just as the Region 808 sunspot cluster was rotating onto the visible disk of the sun. Intense radio emissions were also associated with this flare...
This event created a complete blackout of high frequency communications on the daylit side of Earth. Communications used by emergency services along the Gulf Coast may have experienced problems due to this flare... Significant eruptions are expected in the coming days.
As many diaries have noted, there have been many man-made communication failures since Katrina struck.
NOAA is responsible for making space weather predictions, through its Space Environment Center -- it is important that FEMA and DHS listen and understand that there may be serious natural communication failures this week. Considering their inability to heed warnings of atmospheric weather, I have no confidence they will heed (or even hear) warnings coming from our goverment's own scientists about extra-terrestrial threats.
HEY FEMA: Here is tonight's three day forcast for the sun:
Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 808 is obviously a complex and moderate-large size sunspot group with great flare potential. Expect further major flares.
In addition to the immediate radio blackout that occur within 10 minutes of the actual flare, there is a good possibility that these solar eruptions will produce "Coronal Mass Ejections" or CMEs. These CMEs contain high speed, high energy particles (protons and electrons) that are literally flung from the surface of the sun.
This material can be directed at the Earth, a scenario that becomes highly likely with large flares originating from sunspots in the position that this complex will take in the next few days. Earthward directed CMEs take from one to three days to reach Earth, where they can inflict serious damage to satellites, and warp the Earth's magnetic field to produce geomagnetic storming.
The most visible result from geomagnetic storming are low latitude aurora. The last major class X flare in 2003 produced aurora visible in Jamaica.
The warping of the magnetic field can have some very serious effects, including a collapse of sections of the power grid. I was living in Montréal in 1989 when a geomagnetic storm swamped Hydro-Québec's grid and plunged the province into darkness for 10 hours. The long Niagra Falls lines across New York state are very susceptable to a similar overload, and could create a another domino-style blackout that we saw two summers ago.
From SEC's Primer on Space Weather Disruptions:
Communications
Many communication systems utilize the ionosphere to reflect radio signals over long distances. Ionospheric storms can affect radio communication at all latitudes. Some radio frequencies are absorbed and others are reflected, leading to rapidly fluctuating signals and unexpected propagation paths. TV and commercial radio stations are little affected by solar activity, but ground-to-air, ship-to-shore, Voice of America, Radio Free Europe, and amateur radio are frequently disrupted. Radio operators using high frequencies rely upon solar and geomagnetic alerts to keep their communication circuits up and running.
Some military detection or early-warning systems are also affected by solar activity. The Over-the-Horizon Radar bounces signals off the ionosphere in order to monitor the launch of aircraft and missiles from long distances. During geomagnetic storms, this system can be severely hampered by radio clutter. Some submarine detection systems use the magnetic signatures of submarines as one input to their locating schemes. Geomagnetic storms can mask and distort these signals.
Navigation
Systems such as LORAN and OMEGA are adversely affected when solar activity disrupts their signal propagation. The OMEGA system consists of eight transmitters located through out the world. Airplanes and ships use the very low frequency signals from these transmitters to determine their positions. During solar events and geomagnetic storms, the system can give navigators information that is inaccurate by as much as several miles. If navigators are alerted that a proton event or geomagnetic storm is in progress, they can switch to a backup system. GPS signals are affected when solar activity causes sudden variations in the density of the ionosphere.
Electric Power
When magnetic fields move about in the vicinity of a conductor such as a wire, an electric current is induced into the conductor. This happens on a grand scale during geomagnetic storms. Power companies transmit alternating current to their customers via long transmission lines. The nearly direct currents induced in these lines from geomagnetic storms are harmful to electrical transmission equipment. On March 13, 1989, in Montreal, Quebec, 6 million people were without commercial electric power for 9 hours as a result of a huge geomagnetic storm. Some areas in the northeastern U.S. and in Sweden also lost power. By receiving geomagnetic storm alerts and warnings, power companies can minimize damage and power outages.
Pipelines
Rapidly fluctuating geomagnetic fields can induce currents into pipelines. During these times, several problems can arise for pipeline engineers. Flow meters in the pipeline can transmit erroneous flow information, and the corrosion rate of the pipeline is dramatically increased. If engineers unwittingly attempt to balance the current during a geomagnetic storm, corrosion rates may increase even more. Pipeline managers routinely receive alerts and warnings to help them provide an efficient and long-lived system.
The chances that major disruptions will be significantly higher than normal this week. Still -- they are minimal.
I'm sorry for the long post but I wanted to get this out for three reasons:
- One, people in the Gulf should know that they may have problems this week. I don't trust FEMA to tell them.
- Two, people must be aware of the possibilty of major communication and power disruptions elsewhere in the US. I don't trust FEMA. Period.
- Three, if there are problems related to this uncommonly intense solar activity, the "blame game" will stop right here. Wednesday, Sept. 7th at 9:45 PM. When Brown or Chertoff or Bush claim they had "no idea the power grid could fail" -- point them to this diary and tell 'em to shut the fuck up.